Tuesday. We’re looking at the UN climate push and its discontents, then moving on to nuclear news and more, all in 1,364 words, 5 minutes.
🙏 Thanks to Chuck McCutcheon and Chris Speckhard for edits to today’s edition, along with the brilliant Axios Visuals team.
🎹 This week marks 50 yearssince The Band released the album “Northern Lights — Southern Cross,” which provides today’s epic intro tune… 1 big thing: Bill Gates is pitching a COP30 refocus By Amy Harder
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Bill Gates is calling on world leaders gathering at an annual climate summit next month to rethink progress through the lens of human development.
Why it matters: The comments signal a shifted public posture from the Microsoft co-founder, who’s among the world’s top funders of both new climate technologies and initiatives to save lives from disease and poverty.
Driving the news: Gates — who isn’t attending the United Nations climate meeting in Belém, Brazil, starting Nov. 10 — praised the summit’s focus on adaptation and human development.
- He called the moment “a chance to refocus on the metric that should count even more than emissions and temperature change: improving lives.”
- In a 17-page memo titled “Three tough truths about climate,” Gates writes: “Our chief goal should be to prevent suffering, particularly for those in the toughest conditions who live in the world’s poorest countries.”
The big picture: Gates’ comments reflect how the zeitgeist — especially in the U.S. — has pushed climate change off the front burner.
- War, President Trump’s trade skirmishes, and battles over democracy are dominating political attention and media headlines.
- Meanwhile, AI exuberance — and its fantastical energy demands — is grabbing attention and dollars within the energy and climate sectors.
Flashback: Gates’ public focus has shifted over the years, too.
- After publishing a book in 2021 called “How to Avoid A Climate Disaster” and expanding his climate work into policy and advocacy, he scaled back earlier this year.
- While preserving his venture investments, he has cut parts of Breakthrough Energy, an organization he funds to support climate technologies, and has doubled down on funding for the Gates Foundation.
Friction point: Gates sought to preemptively address critics.
- “I know that some climate advocates will disagree with me, call me a hypocrite because of my own carbon footprint (which I fully offset with legitimate carbon credits), or see this as a sneaky way of arguing that we shouldn’t take climate change seriously.”
- “To be clear: Climate change is a very important problem. It needs to be solved, along with other problems like malaria and malnutrition.”
Catch up quick: The memo updates readers on his climate investments, highlights initiatives he deems misguided and articulates how improved lives mean better protection in a warming world.
- “While we need to limit the number of extremely hot and cold days, we also need to make sure that fewer people live in poverty and poor health so that extreme weather isn’t such a threat to them,” Gates writes.
What’s next: Gates urged the UN and global leaders to focus on lowering the cost of new technologies and evaluating climate efforts based on their return for human well-being.
Disclosure: Amy Harder is a former employee of Breakthrough Energy in her role leading Cipher News, an independent news outlet supported by Breakthrough Energy. 2. 🔭 UN projects emissions drop — but not enoughBy Ben Geman
Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios
New UN analysis of nations’ nonbinding climate plansprojects a global emissions decline of 10% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels.
Why it matters: It’s a mixed picture — the body now sees emissions finally peaking and going into decline.
- But the drop is far off pace with what’s needed for Paris Agreement goals aimed at holding some of the worst climate harms at bay.
The big picture: “[H]umanity is now clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, although still not nearly fast enough,” Simon Stiell, the top UN climate official, said in a statement.
Driving the news: The estimate reflects many nations’ updated plans under the Paris Agreement, or targets announced, including China’s and the EU’s.
- The UN also released a separate analysis that only covers “nationally determined contributions” formally submitted by Sept. 30.
What we’re watching: How the latest tally affects talks at COP30 in Brazil next month. 3. 🚘 Elon Musk’s political foray cost Tesla huge sales — studyBy Ben Geman
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s“polarizing and partisan actions” may have cost the EV maker over 1 million U.S. car sales, Yale researchers find in a new paper.
Why it matters: It puts huge numbers around what auto analysts and pollsters have directionally believed about the business effect of Musk’s political arc.
Driving the news: The study sees a key break in sales data in Democratic counties beginning in October 2022, when Musk bought Twitter (now X).
- It zooms in on October 2022-April 2025. That stretch featured his many right-leaning statements, alliance with Donald Trump, and time leading DOGE.
Stunning stats: “By the first quarter of 2025, we find that without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla monthly sales would have been about 150 percent higher,” the working paper finds.
- “When the effect is aggregated over the entire period from October 2022 through April 2025, we find that Tesla lost between 1 and 1.26 million vehicles in sales.”
Reality check: Industry analysts I touched base with were skeptical of the findings’ magnitude.
A MESSAGE FROM PWCFacing tax policy head on
Rohit Kumar, principal and co-leader of PwC’s national tax office, says business leaders should approach investments with confidence that today’s tax environment is stable.
- “This tax code is as pro-investment as we’ll see for the foreseeable future, and it’s expected to stay in place for the next five years,” Kumar said.
Watch the conversation. 4. 🏃 Catch up quick: Reactors and mineralsBy Ben Geman
💵 Trump officials this morning unveiled a “strategic partnership” with Westinghouse, nuclear fuel provider Cameco and investment giant Brookfield to spur new U.S. projects.
- Why it matters: The plan envisions “at least $80 billion of new reactors will be constructed across the United States using Westinghouse nuclear reactor technology.”
- The big picture: The announcement is also heavy on pushing new reactors to power energy-thirsty AI infrastructure to “win the global AI race.”
- What we’re watching:Specifics, if and when they emerge. Here’s one though: the $80B could potentially support restarting construction of unfinished reactors in South Carolina, a Brookfield spokesperson tells me (see item 5 for more on this).
🇯🇵 The U.S. and Japan unveiled a “common policy framework” aimed at boosting critical minerals and rare earths mining and processing.
- What we’re watching: They also released an energy-heavy list of projects eyed for investment under the U.S.-Japan trade deal.
5. 🔥 So hot right now: Reviving big reactors for AIBy Ben Geman and Katie Fehrenbacher
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
Google and NextEra Energy announced a power purchase deal that will help finance the restart of the shuttered, 615-megawatt nuclear plant in Iowa.
Why it matters: It’s a major new piece of a big trend — energy-hungry hyperscalers striking deals that help finance new or revived generating infrastructure.
Driving the news: The agreement will help advance NextEra’s existing plans to reopen the Duane Arnold Energy Center near Cedar Rapids that ceased operations in 2020.
- It’s a 25-year agreement between the tech and power giants, and terms were not disclosed.
- NextEra also said Central Iowa Power Cooperative will purchase the remaining output.
State of play: While Google has AI infrastructure in the region, the power will flow into the regional grid.
- These PPAs help energy companies finance and operate major projects.
- “[E]nergy customers in Iowa will not bear any costs associated with the power Google purchases from the facility,” the announcement states.
- NextEra hopes to have the plant back online by early 2029.
Catch up quick: It follows last year’s deal between Microsoft and Constellation to restart the undamaged reactor at Three Mile Island.
- And just last week, Google unveiled a power deal that will help finance a new gas-fired power plant in Illinois that will capture CO2.
What we’re watching: Brookfield is in advanced talks to buy and restart Santee Cooper’s stalled nuclear projects in South Carolina.
- Brookfield is simultaneously talking to Big Tech and other potential energy buyers, plus seeking construction partners.
- The projects, dubbed V.C. Summer Nuclear Station, will use two AP1000 nuclear reactors, and the bill will likely reach into the tens of billions of dollars.
Go deeper: Unlock more about Brookfield’s plan by talking to our sales team about Axios Pro Deals. 6. 🧮 Number of the day: Over 80 billion cubic meters per year
That’s how much new U.S. LNG capacity is covered by the burst of final investment decisions this year, per IEA’s latest gas market report.
The big picture: By 2030, the U.S. could be supplying one-third of global LNG supply, up from roughly a fifth last year.
The bottom line: The FID wave shows industry confidence in expanding demand and supportive U.S. policy, but a supply glut could loom.
A MESSAGE FROM PWCHow tax incentives are benefiting businesses right now
Business leaders should capitalize on today’s tax environment.
“The incentive regime today will be around at least for the next five years, but as we look into the 2030s, we start to see Social Security putting pressure on the budget” says Rohit Kumar, principal and co-leader of PwC US’s national tax office.
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