What $625 Billion in Federal Medicaid Cuts Could Mean for State Budgets and Medicaid Enrollees

In a new analysis, KFF estimates the potential impact of the proposed $625 billion in federal Medicaid cuts over 10 years on state budgets and Medicaid enrollment.

The analysis illustrates the potential variation in the impact of federal Medicaid cuts proposed in the current House reconciliation bill across states by showing a range of enrollment effects. It also shows the federal cuts relative to increased taxes or decreased spending on other programs, like education, if states opted to offset the entire amount of federal cuts.

The analysis shows that the proposed cuts represent 20% of states’ total Medicaid spending per resident, ranging from a low of 6% in Wyoming and 8% in Florida to a high of 50% in Louisiana and 48% in Kentucky. Based on the Congressional Budget Office estimate that the reconciliation bill could decrease Medicaid enrollment by 10.3 million people nationally by 2034, KFF’s analysis shows Washington, Virginia, and Montana could see the largest drops. In each of these states, Medicaid enrollment could fall by 15% to 32%.