Good morning. President Trump’s deadline to Iran looms. OPEC+ warns of lasting damage to energy assets. NASA’s Artemis II astronauts are set to fly by the Moon’s far side today. Listen to the day’s top stories.
— Tiago Ramos AlfaroMarket SnapshotS&P 500 Futures6,639.00+0.3%WTI crude oil futures$110.27-1.1%Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index1,213.93-0.2%Market data as of 06:49 AM ET. Data is subject to provider delays.
Donald Trump issued a renewed ultimatum to Iran: reopen the Strait of Hormuz or the US will bring “Hell” and destroy Iran’s power plants starting Tuesday. This latest threat, posted on social media and laced with expletives, follows the rescue of a US airman more than a day after his fighter jet was shot down—a development that pierced the aura of invincibility Trump has sought to project as he tries to manage the growing risks of the Iran war (more on that below). Iran, this morning, said “no rational person” would agree to a ceasefire at this point. Axios reported that the US, Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire.
What to watch today: US stock futures edged higher in thin tradingwith many markets in Europe closed. President Trump will hold a press conference at 1 p.m. ET.
At sea, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has climbed to its highest levels since the early days of the war. Oil tankers carrying crude from Iraq appear to be transiting the chokepoint after Iran said its neighbor had a special exemption. Iraq told Asian traders and refiners they can load its crude, testing buyers’ confidence in the security guarantee. Two tankers carrying liquefied natural gas from Qatar also headed toward the strait, which would mark the first export to buyers outside the region since the war started.
So what does this all mean for oil? Prices steadied as traders tracked the report of a push for a ceasefire, Trump’s latest ultimatum and record Saudi crude pricing. OPEC+, the group of key oil producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia, warned that damage to Middle East energy assets will have a prolonged impact on oil supplyeven after the war ends.
And the shockwaves are being felt worldwide. Italy began imposing limits on fuel supplies at some airports. It’s among the earliest instances of fuel shortages in Europe—the main importer of jet fuel from the Persian Gulf—impacting operations since the war started.
JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon urged the US to “get stronger” in order to maintain its military and economic might, in his annual letter to shareholders today. The bank’s recently been more vocal on big-picture policy issues, launching programs like its “American Dream Initiative” to expand economic opportunity in local communities and grow its small-business banking.
Deep Dive: Disruption
Of all the things Trump has done that may disrupt global commerce—from levying punitive tariffs to tearing up trade deals—few would be as consequential as withdrawingand leaving the rest of the world to secure the Persian Gulf.
- European and Asian officials said the conflict has eroded faith in America’s role as the protector of the high seas, raising concerns about energy prices and shifting security calculations.
- A withdrawal, which the president has repeatedly threatened as his war with Iran drags on, would also represent a break with decades of US policy.
- Since World War II, the US has used its navy to deter attacks, counter piracy and challenge attempts by states to restrict lawful passage across sea lanes that carry about four-fifths of the $35 trillion global goods trade.
- Here are our explainers on what it would take to reopenthe Strait of Hormuz and why Iran’s chokehold on the waterway is upending oil supply.
The Big Take
US regulators are rewriting some of the policies that can trigger so-called debanking, a move that risks making it harder for firms to cut off problematic customers or those suspected of criminal activity.
Big Take PodcastTrump’s Iran Address Fails to Ease Markets
Opinion
The Iran war is straining the petrodollar system that has long anchored US financial dominance, Aaron Brown writes. As oil flows stall and foreign central banks sell Treasuries, the decades-old cycle of recycling petrodollars into American debt is faltering—raising fresh doubts about the greenback’s status.
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