Our economy is not thriving yet. The market, according to Paul Krugman, is in denial . Walmart and Target expect empty shelves.
Lay offs, buy outs and diminished services are coming on line and finally some Legislators are concerned about their constituents.
I didn’t hear Jaime Diamond, JP Morgan Chase, back off Recession warnings.
Oddly, Trump once again, displayed his unconcern for American’s and all people, by requesting the IMF back off from Climate Change and societal issues. Trump cares about old fashioned Gilded Age values and sweat shops for the rest of US. That’s Trumps Vision.
Now Krugman’s analysis:
Apparently investors and the news media still haven’t learned that you can’t read supposed insider reports on administration thinking the way you could in a normal administration — as indications of where the policy process is headed. There is no policy process. Trump will zigzag based on who talked to him last. Maybe his next move will be determined by what guests say at the dinner he’s throwing for those who gave him the biggest bribes — which is the literal description of major purchasers of the $Trump coin.
I’d say never mind the stock market. Focus on the real economy, where everything says that policy chaos will soon take a real toll. The Fed’s Beige Book, which looks what businesses are saying, says that “uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive across reports.” And this uncertainty will have dire effects on the real economy.
Many forecasters now expect a recession. But the impact of erratic tariffs and tariff threats may occur even before the economy has time to slump.
Preliminary data suggest that imports from Asia, after surging as importers tried to front-run tariffs, are now collapsing. See the chart at the top of this post.
The CEOs of Target and Walmart reportedly warned Trump that we may be seeing empty shelves within weeks. And foreign trade won’t be revived by hints dropped at closed-door financial conferences. Companies need some certainty about policy, which they won’t get.
In other words, we may soon see a disruption of supply chains reminiscent of what happened during and after the Covid pandemic. But this time a virus won’t be responsible. It will all be about Donald Trump. And this time there won’t be a vaccine coming to our rescue. We’re stuck with this chaos agent for three years and three months.