It’s not hard to start a war. It can be horribly difficult to end one. So far, the U.S. has struck more than 1,000 targets in Iran in two days of operations. Three U.S. service members have been killed in action and five seriously wounded. Trump said in a Sunday evening video address that “there will likely be more” U.S. casualties. We don’t have a reliable tally of Iran’s dead or wounded.
What’s Trump’s endgame? What’s his goal?
I’ve been spending most of the weekend checking with foreign policy experts and a few politicians for their understandings of Trump’s endgame in Iran — his real goal, and how anyone (including him) will know he’s achieved it. I’ve grouped their responses below. Please have a look and share your views.
1. Now that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been killed, Trump will claim victory and get out soon.
I’m told that Trump is seeking the kind of “war” that the U.S. executed in Venezuela — an abduction of a leader by special forces or, as in June, surgical airstrikes on locations where Iran appeared to be building nuclear bombs.
With the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Trump can now claim that his goal of “regime change” has been achieved. As soon as possible — and before U.S. casualties mount — he’ll declare the attack on Iran a success and say the action now moves back to the bargaining table. He’ll say he now expects Iran to cave to his demands for an end to the production of weapons grade plutonium and to its nuclear program, a destruction of all its ballistic missiles, and agreements to disarm its proxies: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas, various militias in Iraq (PMF, Kata’ib Hizballah), the Houthis in Yemen, and forces in Syria.
2. Trump won’t be able to exit as easily or quickly as he may want because Netanyahu wants to keep on the attack until Iran is no longer a threat.
Some experts I spoke with told me Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a much bigger player in this conflict than the American press is reporting, and Netanyahu won’t stop the Israeli bombing until he’s turned much of Iran into rubble. The Israeli leader is committed to destroying all of Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, which will require far more extensive bombardment, perhaps continuing for many weeks.
They tell me Trump needs Netanyahu more than Netanyahu needs Trump. Not only is the Israeli military essential to the success of this operation, but Israeli intelligence is necessary to find and neutralize Iran’s war capacities. Trump doesn’t want to be upstaged by Netanyahu, who might tell the world that more needs to be done to eliminate the Iranian threat. So Trump will keep attacking Iran until Netanyahu agrees to end the bombing.
3. Trump will commit American ground troops and enlarge the war in an effort to fully accomplish regime change and establish a new Iranian regime subservient to him.
Some of the people I spoke with told me that Trump still clings to the goal that he believes he achieved in Venezuela: gaining a subservient regime. He wants to be remembered as the American president who ended the threat of Iran once and for all, and he believes he can pull off a total victory (in this, Netanyahu is in agreement with him).
So far, no American troops have set foot on Iranian soil. But if Trump seeks permanent “regime change,” it will almost surely require ground troops. Iran has nearly a million men under arms. The experts I talked with fear that Trump (and his advisers) have minimized the size and determination of Iran’s military and Revolutionary Guard. Trump and the people around him also believe they can engineer a coup in Iran, for which American troops will be needed only as advisers and counselors (anyone remember Vietnam?). Nor have they considered the very real possibility of civil war.
4. Trump and his advisers have no idea what’s next, what their exit strategy will be, or how they’ll manage the next phase of this conflict.
Others tell me there’s no strategy. They say Pete Hegseth and Marco Rubio are way over their heads and that the Pentagon and State Department and National Security staff are in chaos. No one is in charge. Trump believes he can somehow pull this off because he thinks he’s smarter than everyone else, but he’s getting conflicting advice about ongoing strategy and maneuvers and making conflicting and inconsistent decisions.
By this view, the only people with any sense of what’s happening are the generals and top Pentagon brass who are getting real-time reports from Iran, but they don’t have an exit strategy because they don’t think it’s their responsibility to decide when the United States has been successful or what “success” even means. The generals are worried, however, that the conflict could deplete resources necessary to deal with other potential conflicts around the world. The result is a war without a plan, without a strategy, and without any clear understanding of where it leads or how it ends.
So, today’s Office Hours question: What’s Trump’s endgame for the war in Iran?POLLWhat’s Trump’s endgame for the Iran war?Claim victory and get out.Attack until Netanyahu is ready. Full victory and regime change.There’s none. Other (in comments)