The Trump regime’s pullback of federal immigration agents from Minneapolis is a major political retreat.
But what does it actually mean? Certainly not border czar Tom Homan’s alleged reason for the pullback: “As a result of our efforts here, Minnesota is now less of a sanctuary state for criminals.”
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Mayor Jacob Frey of Minneapolis insist they made no concession to Homan to secure the departure of the federal agents.
So, what’s the real meaning of the pullback? The answer will suggest what Trump and his regime will try to do over the next months leading to the midterm elections. It will offer a clue as to what Trump and his sycophants in Congress are likely to do next. And provide some indication of what Democrats should be doing and saying.
Here’s what I’m hearing about the real reasons for the pullback and the lessons to be drawn from it:
1. A strong, powerful, on-the-ground resistance works.
Minneapolis Mayor Frey attributes the federal withdrawal to his constituents’ strong, steady opposition. This is borne out by my acquaintances and former students from Minneapolis, who tell me that the community came together in remarkable ways.
Even Trump allies agree. Senator Ron Johnson, a Trump loyalist from Wisconsin, characterized the grassroots mobilization in Minneapolis as a “highly organized, highly coordinated effort of resistance. The left … exploited and used their martyrs effectively, and the Trump administration is reacting to that.”
So what’s the lesson? I’ve spoken to a number of Democrats who believe that the public pressure that forced the Trump administration to back down in Minneapolis can be repeated in other major cities. “This shows the best resistance to Trump is at the grassroots,” one told me.
2. Republicans fear the midterm elections.
I’m hearing a different story from political operatives in Washington, who tell me the real significance of the pullback is that Republican lawmakers in Congress — increasingly worried about their midterm prospects — have been pressuring Trump, Kristi Noem, and Stephen Miller to get out of Minneapolis and lower the intensity of ICE raids around the country.
Senator Susan Collins of Maine, who faces a tougher reelection challenge than any other Republican in the chamber, has taken credit for persuading ICE to leave her state. Republican Representatives Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and Jeff Hurd of Colorado — both in competitive districts that Republicans can’t afford to lose — have been telling the White House to cool it. Even Mississippi Republican Senator Roger Wicker is publicly opposing new ICE detention centersin his state.
Chris Madel, a Republican who ended his campaign for Minnesota governor last month, said Trump and national Republicans were making it “really impossible” for the party to prevail in his state.
The lesson? Republicans see a blue wave in November and are doing whatever they can to constrain the Trump regime’s extremism, at least through the midterms.
3. Trump is concerned about his popularity tanking.
A third theory I’ve heard is that Trump initiated the pullback because he’s been watching television and reading the polls, and he’s taking the public’s negative reaction to ICE enforcement personally.
Trump doesn’t care about the midterms or even the Republican Party nearly as much as he cares about his own standing, legacy, fame, and power — and he’s started to be concerned that all are endangered by what’s happening in places like Minneapolis. (A new AP-NORC poll shows that about 6 in 10 adults in America think Trump has “gone too far” in sending federal agents into American cities, and political independents are especially uncomfortable with his tactics.)
The lesson? Loud resistance, protests, and news stories about ICE’s excesses are effective. “Trump is a populist. He’s not an ideologue. He doesn’t believe in anything except himself,” said Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois, a Democrat who is running for the state’s open Senate seat. “When that resistance and those protests actually made his policies tremendously unpopular, he relented. And I think it’s a lesson that we should apply elsewhere when he engages in outrageous activities.”
4. It’s part of a broader Republican break with Trump.
Another view I’m hearing is that the real significance of the pullback in Minnesota is that Republicans across the nation are finally starting to break with Trump — not only over immigration and not just because of the pending midterms, but because they no longer fear him. They’ve also refused to follow Trump on his tariffs, the Epstein files, and his insistence that Senate Republicans end the filibuster rule.
Among those who no longer fear him are dozens of Republican members who are not seeking reelection to the House, creating what’s being called the “Nothing Left to Lose” caucus. I’m hearing that once they’re past the primaries, we’re going to see even more Republican defections in both the Senate and the House.
“His threats are wearing thin,” an operative told me. “Members are sick and tired of being told what to do. And many of them don’t want to be remembered as the people who let Trump do whatever he wanted. They’re breaking with him, and he knows it. The pullback from Minneapolis is part of this bigger story.”
So, today’s Office Hours question: What do you think is the major significance of Trump’s pullout from Minneapolis? POLLWhat’s the main lesson to be drawn from the regime’s pullout from Minneapolis?On-the-ground resistance pays off. Republicans fear the midterms.Trump worried about his popularity.Republicans breaking with Trump.Other (in comments)