Friends,
Forget tonight’s State of the Union. You know exactly what Trump is going to say. The far more interesting question is what Democrats and progressives will say in coming weeks and months. What’s the Democratic midterm message?
Every seat in Congress is up for election. Democrats need a net gain of only three seats to win control of the House. Although they enjoy a strong tailwind from Trump’s high disapproval ratings — just 32 percent of Americans now say Trump has had the right priorities, while 68 percent say he hasn’t paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems — Democrats are facing an unusually large number of Republicans barricaded inside ruby-red House districts.
In the Senate, Democrats need to flip four seats to win a majority. Although independent voters have drifted toward the Democrats this year — Trump’s approval rating among independents has dropped 15 points year over year to 26 percent, the lowest it’s been in either of his terms — most of the 2026 Senate contests are in states that Trump easily won in 2024.
So how can Democrats and independent progressives pull this off and take back control of Congress?
I’ve been in contact with several advisers to Democratic candidates and have asked them what they’re advising their candidates about messaging. Their major responses are below.
Please choose the one you believe will be most convincing to voters in the midterms.
1. Trump’s failures
Some tell me that Trump’s failures — and Republican complicity with them — are the No. 1 issue to rile up likely Democratic as well as independent voters. “They want fighters against Trump,” an adviser told me. People are angry at Trump’s failure to reduce prices, his tax cuts for the rich and big corporations, his entanglements in foreign affairs, his excessive brutality on immigration, and his corruption. And they’re furious with Republicans (and some Democrats) for allowing Trump to get away with all of it.
2. Affordability
Others tell me that voters are sick and tired of hearing about Trump, and most want candidates to tell them how they’re going to make life more affordable. Voters want to know candidates’ ideas for bringing down the costs of housing, health care, child care, elder care, energy, utilities, and higher education. They want to support candidates who are committed to making America more affordable for people like themselves. An adviser told me: “As has been said, ‘It’s the economy, stupid.’”
3. A brand new vision
Still others say voters most want a new vision for America, focused on reforming and rebuilding everything that’s become dysfunctional or that Trump has wrecked. They want to know a candidate’s ideas for reversing widening inequality, helping the working middle class do better, getting big money out of politics, reforming the Electoral College, stopping the gerrymandering, and creating economic opportunity for everyone. “Now is the time to look forward with a big vision of what America can and should be,” one adviser told me.
4. Style and charisma
Several advisers tell me that none of this matters nearly as much as a candidate’s style, charisma, and ability to “connect” with voters. They say they’ve never encountered a group as cynical as today’s electorate, who have come to hate politics and detest almost all politicians (even MAGAs are shifting in this direction). So they’re telling their candidates that the message matters far less than the messenger — and that candidates must overcome cynicism with the force of their personalities, convincing voters they really understand what voters are going through and will respond to their needs.
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Hence, today’s Office Hours question: What should be the core message of Democrats and/or progressives in the upcoming midterms?POLLWhat should be the core message of Democrats and progressives in the coming midterm elections?Trump’s failuresAffordabilityA new vision for AmericaStyle, charismaOther (in comments)