Trump announced on Friday that there will be no deal with Iran “except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” which Trump defines as: “Where they cry uncle or when they can’t fight any longer and there’s nobody around to cry uncle.”
What the hell does this mean? Trump shifts ground as quickly as lizards do. He still hasn’t explained to Americans the purpose of his war.
Seven U.S. service members are dead so far, as are more than 1,800 Iranians, and the price of oil has now topped $100 a barrel.
So, right now the key question is: What will Trump demand of Iran to end his war?
I’ve summarized below some views based on what I’ve gleaned over the weekend from foreign policy experts, Middle East specialists, and political operatives.
Please have a look and share your sense of what’s most likely.
1. He’ll be satisfied only if Iran agrees to stop its nuclear program, end its enrichment of uranium, and allow international inspectors to ensure that it has done so.
This would be a far tougher agreement than Iran had with the Obama administration, in which Iran limited future enrichment of uranium to less than 4 percent purity and consented to international inspectors. After Trump abandoned the deal in 2018, the Iranians began enriching their uranium beyond 20 percent, well higher than could be justified for civilian or scientific use.
But Iran’s agreement to these conditions may not be enough for Trump. One reason he gave for abandoning the deal in 2018 was that Iran wouldn’t allow international inspectors to look wherever they wanted. He was also concerned that the international inspectors themselves couldn’t be relied on to target everywhere Iran might be storing or hiding its enriched uranium.
2. He’ll be satisfied only if Iran surrenders all its enriched uranium as well as whatever remains of centrifuges and related equipment, destroys its ballistic missiles, and allows American and Israeli inspectors to ensure it has done so.
This would require that Iran turn over to the U.S. all 970 pounds of its estimated stocks of enriched uranium along with all forms of other nuclear material, as well as whatever remains of centrifuges and related equipment for its nuclear program. Iran would also have to destroy all its ballistic missiles. To ensure Iran has done all this, Iran would need to give the U.S. and Israel the right to fully inspect, whenever and wherever.
But not even these terms would guarantee Iran’s abandonment of its nuclear program, because Iran still has scientists who know how to enrich uranium and turn it into nuclear bombs and warheads. And, of course, there’s no assurance that Iran would continue to allow the U.S. and Israel to fully inspect.
3. He’ll be satisfied only if hepicks and installs Iran’s next leaders.
Trump wants to achieve in Iran what he achieved in Venezuela, along with the cooperation he’s received from Nicolás Maduro’s former vice president, Delcy Rodriguez. Yet in selecting Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as its new supreme leader, Iran has thumbed its nose at Trump. “Khamenei’s son is unacceptable to me.” Trump says. “I have to be involved in the appointment, like with [Rodriguez] in Venezuela.”
But the situations are entirely different. Venezuela is a hollowed-out petrostate. By contrast, Iran is an entrenched theocracy backed by a vast security apparatus that’s built to preserve the system even after the loss of senior leaders. Hence, it won’t be possible to replicate in Iran what Trump did in Venezuela.
4. He’ll be satisfied only if and when there’s a U.S. (and Israeli) occupation of Iran.
A fourth view is that Trump realizes (or will soon realize) that the only way the U.S. (and Israel) can be completely sure that Iran will not resume its nuclear program or rebuild its ballistic missiles is if the U.S. (and Israel) takes direct control of the country. That means an occupation of Iran. In recent days he has referred to the “unconditional surrender” of Japan and Germany at the end of World War II, which led to the occupation of both by allied troops.
But an occupation of Iran would expose American troops to potential violence from armed militias there. And it would directly violate Trump’s promise to his MAGA base to avoid foreign entanglements and regime change — which could come back to haunt him in the midterm elections.
Hence today’s Office Hours question: What will Trump demand of Iran for its “unconditional surrender?”POLLWhat terms will Trump demand of Iran for its “unconditional surrender?”1. Agreement to end nuclear program2. Turn over uranium and equipment3. Trump picks Iran’s new leaders4. U.S occupies Iran5. Other (in comments)