Today G. Elliott Morris of Strength in Numbers noted that Trump has hit a new low in overall job performance and in his handling of the economy, at -22.2 and -40.3, respectively. Those numbers reflect the percentage of people who approve of his handling of an issue minus those who disapprove. Indeed, Morris noted that Trump’s approval rating on the economy is so low it “literally broke the scale of this graph on my data portal.”
On Tuesday, Morris explained in Strength in Numbers that while Republicans have lately been arguing that they simply need to get people to show up to win the midterms, turnout is not their problem. Their real problem is that voters don’t like what Trump is doing.
An obvious symbol of Trump’s presidency is his unilateral decision to tear down the East Wing of the White House and replace it with a giant ballroom. A new Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos poll released today shows that Americans oppose the ballroom by a margin of about two to one. Fifty-six percent of Americans oppose it, while only 28% support it. Of those who oppose it, 47% oppose it strongly.
Dan Diamond and Scott Clement of the Washington Post note that people don’t like Trump’s proposed triumphal arch, either—52% opposed versus 21% in favor—or the idea of Trump’s signature on paper money. Sixty-eight percent of Americans oppose that plan, while only 12% support it. Even Republicans oppose it 40% to 28%.
And then there is Trump’s war on Iran. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that only 34% of Americans approve of the strikes on Iran, while 61% oppose them. Gas prices continue to rise, with Brent crude futures today briefly topping $114 a barrel—the highest price since June 2022, shortly after Russia launched its attack on Ukraine. Senator Angus King (I-ME) noted on CNN today that these higher prices are currently costing American consumers about $700 million a day.
On his Substack today, economist Paul Krugman noted that the acronym “TACO,” for “Trump Always Chickens Out,” has been replaced by “NACHO”: “Not A Chance Hormuz Opens.” Krugman explains that Iran is unlikely to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil passed before Israel and the U.S. began airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, until “the economic damage from its closure becomes much more severe.”
Trump is maintaining a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, and Iran says it will not reopen the strait until that blockade on Iranian shipping is lifted. Krugman notes that Trump’s ego will not permit him “to face up to the reality that he, more or less single-handedly, led America to the greatest strategic defeat in its history.”
So he is deluding himself into thinking he can extract concessions from Iran, although he has been unclear about what those might be. For their part, Krugman notes, Iranian officials have no incentive to make a deal, both because the pinch on oil is hurting the U.S. and thus Trump, and because they have no reason to believe Trump would honor any deal they made. He has made a habit of breaking deals.
“The question now,” Krugman wrote, is “how much destruction will the world, and America, have to bear before Trump is willing to accept reality?”
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth testified yesterday in front of the House Armed Services Committee and today in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee about Trump’s request for a $1.5 trillion defense budget and the Iran war. This was the first time a member of the administration had appeared in a public hearing since the war began, and lawmakers had much to say. Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the top-ranking Democrat on the committee, summed up the situation:
“Sixty-one days ago,” he said, “President Trump unilaterally began the war in Iran. He had no coherent strategy. He refused to make a case to the American people or consult Congress. He failed to present any evidence of an immediate threat, and he ignored the advice of military and intelligence experts who warned him of the consequences. Today our nation is in a worse strategic position. The Strait of Hormuz was open. Now it is closed. Thirteen service members have tragically lost their lives, and more than 400 have been wounded. We have lost dozens of aircraft, sustained significant damage to our bases in the area, and expended an alarming amount of our missile inventory. Morale and readiness across the force, especially among overdeployed units and vessels like the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, have suffered. Gasoline and fertilizer prices throughout the world have surged. American families are bearing the cost of a war they wanted nothing to do with and have gained nothing from.”
Tomorrow marks 60 days since Trump informed Congress he had begun military actions against Iran. Under the 1973 War Powers Act, after 60 days the president has to either end those hostilities or get congressional approval. In his testimony today, Hegseth tried to argue that the 60-day clock stops during a ceasefire, only to have Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) note that the law doesn’t say that.
And yet, today Senate Republicans blocked another Democratic measure—the sixth, introduced by Senator Adam Schiff (D-CA)—to require Trump to end his war on Iran. House speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) told Ryan Nobles, Monica Alba, and Alexandra Marquez of NBC News that Congress doesn’t have to meddle with Trump’s actions in Iran because the U.S. is currently “not at war.”
And then there is the corruption. Last week, news broke that a start-up company backed by President Trump’s son Eric had won a $24 million contract from the Pentagon. Today news broke that the U.S. Air Force has agreed to buy an undisclosed number of drones from a company backed by Trump’s sons.
And then there is the incompetence. Today, after a 76-day shutdown, House Republicans finally passed a Senate measure to fund the Department of Homeland Security while withholding funds from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection, the parent agency for Border Patrol. The Senate passed the bill unanimously on March 27, but because it was what the Democrats wanted, Speaker Johnson refused to take it up until today.
In the face of Trump’s growing unpopularity, the Republicans are changing not their unpopular policies but the rules of elections, clearly hoping to game the system to win elections no matter how unpopular they have become.
Yesterday, with virtually no public input, the Florida Senate approved a gerrymandered map designed to give four more seats in Congress to the Republicans despite the fact that more than ten years ago, voters passed a constitutional amendment that bans partisan gerrymandering.
Also yesterday, the Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais threw open the door for Republicans in southern states to redraw their maps to shift between 10 and 15 seats from Democrats to Republicans. In the decision, the six Republican-appointed justices on the court declared that plaintiffs charging that district lines discriminate on the basis of race must prove that the lawmakers who drew those lines were intentionally making decisions based on race rather than partisanship, which the court has declared is beyond reach of the federal courts.
The decision means that states are now free to redraw district lines to undercut the power of minority voters, a demographic that tends to vote for Democrats.
Louisiana’s Republican governor, Jeff Landry, immediately declared a state of emergency, suspending the primary elections in the state in order to gerrymander the state to grab one or two more Republican seats. More than 100,000 absentee ballots had already been sent out—some have already been returned—and voting was due to start within days.
Democrats have already filed a lawsuit against the governor’s attempt to stop an election that’s already underway and to let the election proceed. The lawsuit notes, among other things, that the Constitution gives to state legislatures, not the governor, the responsibility for deciding “[t]he Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives.”
Lawmakers in Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama are also considering redistricting in the wake of the Callais decision.
Democrats have responded to the Supreme Court’s gutting of the Voting Rights Act and the Republican-dominated state gerrymanders that are sure to follow. States dominated by Democrats are considering their own gerrymanders to counter the Republicans, as well as new legislation to protect minority voting rights in their states.
“Today’s decision by this illegitimate Supreme Court majority strikes a blow against the Voting Rights Act and is designed to undermine the ability of communities of color all over this country to elect their candidate of choice,” House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) told reporters Wednesday. “But we are not here to step back. We are here to fight back.”
Trump, meanwhile, wants even more. His social media account posted today: “How much abuse can the Republican Senate take from the Radical Left Lunatics in the form of Democrat Senators, before they BLOW UP (TERMINATE!) THE FILIBUSTER, and approve things at a record clip, including The Save America Act, that would be unthinkable without the Filibuster Termination??”
Without the filibuster, he told reporters, “[w]e could pass one bill after the other. We could pass laws and acts and things that we never even dreamt of passing. And you know what else? We wouldn’t lose for 50 years.”
The upcoming elections are definitely on Trump’s mind. He called in to NewsMax today, saying: “It is a problem I’m not on the ballot. And I have to convince—Everyone says if I was on the ballot we’d win in a landslide. I have the best, I have some of the best poll numbers I’ve ever had.”
—
Notes:
Strength In Numbers
No, higher turnout won’t fix the Republicans’ midterms problem
A ballot measure to gerrymander Virginia’s congressional districts passed on Tuesday, April 21, with a narrow three-point margin of victory. The new map — which a Republican state judge temporarily paused on April 22 — would give Democrats 10 of the state’s 11 seats, up from their current six. (For context, Democratic governor Abigail Spanberger won the statewide popular vote by 15 points last November, and Kamala Harris won the state by six points in 2024…
3 days ago · 152 likes · 11 comments · G. Elliott Morris
Paul Krugman
On Wall Street, TACO — Trump Always Chickens Out — has abruptly been replaced as a favorite meme by NACHO — Not a Chance Hormuz Opens. As a result, oil futures have soared…
19 hours ago · 2411 likes · 585 comments · Paul Krugman
Strength In Numbers
What the SCOTUS VRA decision means for the midterms — and the future
On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott and David unpack the Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais and explain what it means for the midterms and beyond. Then Elliott pushes back on a trendy take that Democrats’ “only” 7–8 point generic ballot lead, despite Trump’s –22 net approval, proves the party is fundamentally misaligned with voters on cultural issues. Here are the big takeaways…
10 hours ago · 98 likes · 1 comment · G. Elliott Morris and David Nir
Facebook:
Bluesky:
gelliottmorris.com/post/
ofthebraveusa.bsky.social/
atrupar.com/post/3mkpr7orpic2w
atrupar.com/post/3mkqg7dzaf72m