ast night Trump said Iran has been “decimated,” that his war was “nearing completion,” and that all his military objectives — especially eliminating Iran’s capacity to produce nuclear weapons — were “on track.”
In other words, he said nothing new. He still hasn’t stated a clear goal or exit strategy.
So what will be the biggest and most important long-term consequences of this unnecessary and stupid war?
I’ve spent the last several days canvassing people who know a great deal about energy markets, nuclear strategy, foreign policy, technology, and politics — asking them what they believe will be its most significant long-term outcome. Not surprisingly, they offered a range of responses. But there were important areas of agreement, which I’ve listed below. (As you’ll see, not all of the expected consequences are bad.)
Now it’s your turn. Please share with us your view about what will be the biggest and most lasting consequence of Trump’s war with Iran.
1. Iran will build a nuclear bomb.
Trump said last night that Iran’s nuclear sites have been hit again in recent days and “it would take months to get near the nuclear dust,” suggesting we have nothing to fear from its hidden store of near weapon’s grade uranium. Untrue.
The experts I spoke with were nearly unanimous in their belief that Iran would now move ahead with its plans to build a nuclear weapon. They said that the new regime in Tehran is more extreme and belligerent than the one it replaced. The new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei is a hard-liner aligned with a powerful arm of the Iranian military. The regime no longer trusts that the U.S. and the West will abide by any agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Most importantly, I’m told that the regime is now convinced that Iran’s future security depends on having the capacity to deliver a nuclear bomb — into Israel and eventually into the United States, and to threaten both with that possibility.
2. Trump will take the United States out of NATO, and our traditional allies will go it alone.
Trump said last night that it was up to other nations — that is, our traditional allies — to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, rather than the United States. Several foreign policy experts I spoke with see Trump’s war in Iran as a turning point for relations between the U.S. and our allies.
Not only is Trump increasing his threats to take the U.S. out of NATO (he’s said to be furious that America’s NATO allies haven’t lent their support to unblocking the Strait, even though they weren’t consulted about the war beforehand) but he is likely to view this breach as the excuse he’s been looking for to leave the alliance.
European leaders likewise have had it with Trump and the United States. Polls show the Iran war is deeply unpopular among European voters. Even leaders who were once considered among Trump’s closest allies are expressing growing frustration with him over the Iran war. I’m told that many now doubt that the U.S. will come to their aid if Putin threatens Europe; they doubt Trump will drive a hard bargain with Putin over Ukraine; and they worry about Trump’s designs on Greenland. So they’re significantly increasing their own defense spending. And they’re making diplomatic overtures to Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan, to circumvent what they view as an unreliable United States ally.
3. Global energy will shift even faster to wind, solar, biomass, and other renewables.
Last night, Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen “naturally” and that America “doesn’t need” oil from the Middle East. That’s utter bullshit. Oil and natural gas markets are global. Moreover, U.S. oil refineries are designed to process the heavy, sour crude oil that’s imported from abroad, rather than the light sweet crude that’s produced in the U.S. Why else would Trump have lifted sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil if not to ease some of the shock to world oil markets?
The good news — as I was told repeatedly by energy experts — is the energy shocks now hobbling the U.S. and much of the world will push America and other nations to depend less on fossil fuels and more on renewable sources of energy. This is the first oil crisis in which clean alternatives such as solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles, and batteries are widely available and inexpensive. As their scale grows, their costs will continue to decline.
Sellers of solar generators, batteries, and heat pumps are already reporting sharp upticks in global demand. Since Trump’s war began, the stock market valuation of each of China’s three largest battery companies has grown about 20 percent. “Oil and LNG have shown themselves to be deeply unreliable sources of energy,” one specialist told me. “We’re going to see a renaissance in renewables.”
4. Trump’s base will feel so betrayed that it won’t turn out in the 2026 midterms, thereby giving control of Congress to the Democrats.
Trump was swept back into power in 2024 on an “America First” promise of isolationism. He pledged to end foreign entanglements and focus on domestic renewal. Instead, he has focused on foreign affairs — from threatening Greenland to capturing the leader of Venezuela and now a war with Iran without an apparent exit strategy.
Although almost 90 percent of MAGA Republicans say they back the war, according to an NBC News poll, the political experts I spoke with believe Trump’s support has been eroded to a point where many Trump voters won’t turn out for the midterm elections.
Joe Rogan, the influential conservative podcast host, has said the war in Iran is “crazy” and that Americans feel “betrayed” by Trump. The recent resignation of Joe Kent, a top counterterrorism director, previously a Trump loyalist — “I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran,” Kent wrote — also reveals strife in the MAGA-sphere. JD Vance, who has been one of the most outspoken “America First” isolationists, has been thrust into an unpopular and awkward position. Political analysts tell me his star has fallen considerably in the 2028 Republican presidential sweepstakes, while Marco Rubio’s has ascended.
All of these possible consequences of Trump’s war could loom large in coming years. Which of them do you believe will prove the most significant? POLLWhat do you think will be the largest and most important long-term consequence of Trump’s war in Iran?Iran will build a nuclear warheadNATO will fractureFaster shift to renewable energy Trump’s base will split Other (in comments)